Service Name

Cross-Border Convection Forecasts for Network Manager.

Service Abstract

Since 2019, EUROCONTROL’s Network Manager (NM) has engaged with EUMETNET to develop an operational cross-border service for summer convection with the aim of minimising weather related network delays between May and September. EUMETNET arranged for a forecaster from one of the participating MET providers, to be present in a support and advisory capacity to NM operations staff in Brussels.

From an NM perspective, this means that we can be assured of consistency between the MET advice we receive from EUMETNET, and that being used locally by the participating ATM partners. This added weight and assured professional representation from State designed MET providers, helps ensure coordination between ATM partners and NM when there is potential weather disruption. In other words, the weather information is applicable, relevant and usable by all concerned stakeholders.

Common Service Definition

Since there is only one instance of this service, no definition is required.

Service Implementation Status

The service has been operational (non-SWIM) since 2019 for use by NM and their stakeholders. However, the data/information is expected to be provided as a SWIM service by XX (2024)

Service Information

The designated meteorological service providers of each ANSPs collaboratively produce the forecasts under the coordination of EUMETNET. 

The forecasts comprises the following components:

1. A pre-tactical weather forecast produced at 0900 D-1 valid for the next day.

2. A tactical forecast produced twice per day at 0700 and 1100 on D-0.

3. Each forecast depicts the expected convective situation for various periods during that day e.g. 09-12, 12-15, 15-18, 18-21UTC, designed to accommodate the air traffic situation, key decision times for operations and diurnal convection.

4. Each forecast is usually presented as a summary page depicting the time segments relevant to the forecast validity. This may be truncated in the event of no significant convection.

Each forecast will depict a colour coded convection risk corresponding to the given risk matrix.

The NM publishes each forecast on the NOP (network operations portal), in addition to the EUMETNET web portal and distribution by emailed PDF. From 2024 this will also be available as a SWIM information service. EUMETNET also facilitated the forecast polygons in JSON format to any of the ANSPs wishing to use this information in their own systems.

An assessment of the MET information provided determines the need for further actions by NM and the relevant air traffic units.

NMOC (Network Manager Operations Centre) Decision on a Collaborative Conference:

NM DOM (Duty Operations Manager) / NM SNOC (Senior Network Operations Coordinator) evaluates the D-1 Pre-tactical weather forecast and consults with NM Pre-tact, NM Airport Function, NM AOLO (Aircraft Operator Liaison Officer) and NM OM (Operations Manager) on calling a collaborative conference. This decision is based on:

1. Weather forecast information - does it meet the trigger values?

2. Expected traffic - Is it or will it be busy enough? i.e. impacted traffic>20,000 aircraft

3. Day of the week - Higher likelihood for network impact between Friday and Monday

4. Special events - Information on industrial actions, military activities etc.

Service Provision

Service Provider Organization, data origination and provision architecture

The designated MET ANSPs from the following States  contribute to the convection forecast process:

Belgium, France, Austria, United Kingdom, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Albania, Germany, Spain, Italy, Hungary, Portugal, Poland, Romania,  Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Slovakia, Republic of North Macedonia, Switzerland, Netherlands,

Countries that do not participate is because their summer convection is not significant enough to cause widespread and consequential network disruption. This is either due either to the climate of those non participating States (i.e. large and organised convection is not a phenomenon common in northern regions of Europe), or due to geographical location in the network (i.e. the airspace is not so congested as to warrant specific attention or concern when large scale convection occurs i.e. it would have minimal network impact).  

For the duration of the forecast season, one MET ANSP acts as the “lead forecaster” per week, acting to coordinate and harmonise the advice from each contributing State. The final consolidated Cross-Border Convection Forecast for the NM is then published.

The SWIM service will be published by DWD on behalf of all the contributing MET ANSPs.

The lead forecaster is available to NM, to personally provide the cross-border briefings, address other weather impacts, and advise on specific scenarios i.e. strike action coinciding with weather which would otherwise have no impact. They can also answer questions from NM staff on the technical aspects of the meteorology, who could learn first-hand from the experts, and on occasion provided post-operations information in support of the daily ATFM briefing reports.

Service Consumption

Service Consumer Organization

The following consumers are expected: NM, ENAIRE, Slovenia Control, ACG, CCL, DFS, ENAV, LVNL, NATS, Skyguide, DSNA, Hungaro Control, LPS, Skyes, ROMATSA, ANS CZ, BULATSA, HCAA, PANSA, NAVPT, AirNav IE

Consumer Usage

During a conference call, participating FMPs, airports and airlines are expected to share information and address the following questions concerning:

- Which sectors may be affected directly and indirectly;

- Estimated capacity reductions;

- The maximum sector availability;

- Possible areas of capacity for re-routing;

- Impact of staffing situation;

- Impact of military activity;

- Identify re-routing opportunities/scenarios;

- Impact on other initiatives/procedures;

- Any supporting information for situation awareness, including any known intentions or requests for re-routing.